Search

Top Five Predicted CA Congressional Districts To Flip GOP

Top Five GOP CA Congressional Flips Analytics805 Predictions



CA Congressional Districts To Flip GOP

These are the top five districts we predict will flip in CA congressional races in November. All races are Republicans against incumbent Dems except for Mike Garcia who is running against Christy Smith again. The base poll numbers are from the infamous Nate Silver and his ‘538’ company polls from this week, July 20th 2022. 538 is famous for their anti conservative bias. For instance 538 gave Hilary Clinton a huge lead over Trump (20-30 points) in the months before election day 2016.

They are less brazen now a days and we estimate todays poll at 4-5 point anti conservative bias. And so New Hall’s Mike Garcia in CA 27 is likely at 54%.

Ventura’s Matt Jacobs in CA 26 is likely at 47% this week against Brownly. Matt Jacobs has over $1.5 million in the bank and perhaps he will use it to attack Brownly. The only attack we could find on his website was a paragraph decrying her harm to the areas schools and businesses. Fair enough but we recommend more than a paragraph. https://mattjacobsforcongress.com

"Voters in CA26 have had enough. They know we won’t get our country back on track if politicians like Brownley remain in power. They know it’s time to fire 30-year career politician Julia Brownley and send a proven fighter and true public servant to Congress,” Jacobs said.

County Prosecutor Matt Jacobs of Ventura CA campaigning for Congress CA26...








HOUSE FLIPS 2022 NATIONAL OUTLOOK

Obama 2010 VS Joe-bama 2022. Analytics805 Predictions

In the 2010 midterms, then President Obama had an approval of 43% and a Right Track Wrong Track (RTWT) of 33%. Not on the right track according to 66% of America. The House then flipped 63 seats to the GOP in that midterm election. 63 flips out of 435 = A national House flip rate of 14% in 2010.

Now we have Joe Biden at 37.5% approval, and Right Track Wrong Track at 18.3%. These two indicators are the best guide to house flips. So Joe Biden has lost 12.8 points in approval from Obama. And a 45% drop from Obamas RTWT numbers. (From Real Clear Politics)

The equation looks like this: Obama midterm numbers 2010 = 63 House flips

Biden’s midterm numbers 2022 = X

In CA 2022 we have an estimated 5 flips out of 52 House members, about 10%. In 2010 CA had zero flips. Indicating CA does not follow the national average of common sense. The equation:

a) Obama 2010 Approval 43% RTWT 33%

b) Biden 2022 Approval 37.5% RTWT 18.3%

c) Assume Obama 2010 numbers are a 100% baseline… therefore

d) Biden’s current approval is 12.8% less than Obama 2010

e) Biden’s current RTWT is 45% less than Obama 2010

f) Average these numbers 12.8% + 45% = 57.8 / 2 = 28.9% average drop from Obama 2010 to Biden 2022

g) 2010 House flip of 63 house flips to GOP thus 63 House flips X 28.9 % = 18.2 additional house flips

h) 63 + 18.2 = 81 new GOP House flips predicted for 2022.

Analytics805 prediction.

I) 435 House members with 81 GOP flips = 18.6% flip rate nationwide 2022.

J) The 2010 flip rate to GOP was 14%.




ANALYTICS805 LOCAL PREDICTIONS

November 2022

Team Stoker

  1. Stay on same path = 40% max outcome Nov 2022.

  2. Because more dems will be turning out in the runoff than in the primary. And Dems have better get out the vote networks.

  3. Because NPP’s will not switch without a good reason. And claiming you care is not enough, the NPP’s must be shown what Hart approves of, like gender theory in any grade, and even 3rd grade, of raising every single tax possible, of closing churches, schools, businesses, of closing good paying jobs, construction, energy jobs, oil businesses. Everything bad is the Dems fault, roast them for all of it.

  4. Team Stoker needs to get 40% of NPP’s to get close. At the primary he had maybe 5%.

  5. Plus team Stoker needs 5% of dems, like JFK dems who are shocked to see the real marxist plan of the left, now in clear view.

  6. Recommendations: Go for Mexican families on school porn issues, gas and housing issues. Hart has done nothing for working families and has made things worse. And go after the Youngkin voters, parents that do not want Just Communities, Race Training, CRT and all the rest.



Dr Allen in CA 24 Running against Salud Carbajal


If Dr. Allen stays the same, no attacking Salud path, that will produce a 34% max outcome on Nov 2022. Remember Andy Caldwell pulled a 35% against Salud after a million dollars of soft ads, and, in a better district than Allen is in now. Redistricting has added more blue areas of Ventura city, Ojai and removed some north county R strongholds so the new district is worse than the one Andy Caldwell ran in 2020.

  1. 34% is Dr. Allens max if he continues to do nothing, because more dems will be turning out in the runoff than in the primary. And Dems have better get out the vote networks. Dr. Allen may get MWQ’s 8% of NPP’s but this will not overcome the Dems high alert abortion, 2A, Insurrection fueled turnout.

  2. NPP’s will not switch without a good reason. And claiming you are a Dr. and care will not be enough.

  3. Recommendations: The NPP’s must be shown what Salud approves of, like gender theory, porn ed, anti American studies, anti family studies in JH and even to 3rd grade and below. Allen must show the trans library reading sessions in schools for 2nd graders that Salud approves of. Dr. Allen needs to go after Salud because, and this is very important to realize… All Dems have to sign a pledge document saying they will agree and support all these Dem issues, including Teen Talk, Gender queer, Just Communities anti white training, anti Christian training, equity training… Allen needs to hammer Salud on these issues and make him stand with those issues, and then point this out to If Dr

  4. 34% is Dr. Allens max if he continues to do nothing, because more dems will be turning out in the runoff than in the primary. And Dems have better get out the vote networks. Dr. Allen may get MWQ’s 8% of NPP’s but this will not overcome the Dems high alert abortion, 2A, Insurrection fueled turnout.

  5. NPP’s will not switch without a good reason. And claiming you are a Dr. and care will not be enough.

  6. Recommendations: The NPP’s must be shown what Salud approves of, like gender theory, porn ed, anti American studies, anti family studies in JH and even to 3rd grade and below. Allen must show the trans library reading sessions in schools for 2nd graders that Salud approves of. Dr. Allen needs to go after Salud because, and this is very important to realize… All Dems have to sign a pledge document saying they will agree and support all these Dem issues, including Teen Talk, Gender queer, Just Communities anti white training, anti Christian training, equity training… Allen needs to hammer Salud on these issues and make him stand with those issues, and then point this out to parents. That is the Youngkin vote.

  7. Recommendations: The NPP’s must be shown what Salud approves of, like gender theory, porn ed, anti American studies, anti family studies in JH and even to 3rd grade and below. Allen must show the trans library reading sessions in schools for 2nd graders that Salud approves of. Dr. Allen needs to go after Salud because, and this is very important to realize… All Dems have to sign a pledge document saying they will agree and support all these Dem issues, including Teen Talk, Gender queer, Just Communities anti white training, anti Christian training, equity training… Allen needs to hammer Salud on these issues and make him stand with those issues, and then point this out to parents. That is the Youngkin vote.

  8. Also team Allen can equate Salud with creepy Joe Biden, Salud votes in lock step with all Biden policies, shutting down gas production, open borders, inflation, business, school and church lockdowns. Salud Is Biden! Is the message. Because parents are now motivated to vote and because latino NNPs are 80% Biden unfavorable. And White NNP’s are 75% unfavorable to Biden and Salud is Biden…And latinos are 25% of the population and are now voting more than ever.

  9. Team Allen needs to get about 80% of NPP’s to get close to a win. That’s a lot of work to get that number. Direct mailing to all NPP household in district with some hard hitting info about Salud may be only hope. At the June 3, 2022 primary his opponent Salud got 13% NNP, MWQ got 8% NNP, and Allen maybe received 0% NPP. Covered in our previous paper.

  10. Recommendations: Go for Mexican families on school porn issues, gas and housing issues. Salud has done nothing for working families and has made things worse. And go after the Youngkin voters, parents that do not want Just Communities, Race Training, CRT, porn ed and all the rest. And business owners, churches who know Salud is a race baiting, Pelosi loving phony, sucking up to south county white elites, while shafting working families in north county including shuttering SB’s largest city, Santa Maria. It’s all the Dems fault and they have nowhere to hide. parents. That is the Youngkin vote.

  11. Also team Allen can equate Salud with creepy Joe Biden, Salud votes in lock step with all Biden policies, shutting down gas production, open borders, inflation, business, school and church lockdowns. Salud Is Biden! Is the message. Because parents are now motivated to vote and because latino NNPs are 80% Biden unfavorable. And White NNP’s are 75% unfavorable to Biden and Salud is Biden…And latinos are 25% of the population and are now voting more than ever.

  12. Team Allen needs to get about 80% of NPP’s to get close to a win. At the primary his opponents Salud got 13% NNP, MWQ got 8% NNP, and Allen maybe got he had maybe. Covered in our previous paper.

  13. Recommendations: Go for Mexican families on school porn issues, gas and housing issues. Salud has done nothing for working families and has made things worse. And go after the Youngkin voters, white, black, brown and asian parents who do not want Just Communities, Race Training, CRT, porn ed, transvestite library readings for 7 year olds, and all the rest.

  14. And and talk to business owners, churches and other organizations who know Salud is a race baiting, Pelosi/Biden loving and obeying phony, sucking up to south county white elites, while shafting latino and other working families in north county including shuttering SB’s largest city, Santa Maria. It’s all the Dems fault and they have nowhere to hide.




0 views0 comments